Since my childhood, I have continuously witnessed one common rhetoric on India, that it has very huge population which is simply increasing each year and with it there will be more competition, less land available for everyone and in turn poverty and chaos everywhere.
Now that I revisit what has been happening in India, I realise that while things could have been better but they are not all that bad either.
Lets talk about the rise in population in India first based on the census survey each decade (the last one taken in 2011).
It can be seen that post independence of India in 1947, the rise in population has been just alarming. And since then a good thing (but not so good for the rising population) is that the infant mortality rate for India has also decreased from hundreds down to around 40 mainly due to rising incomes, improved nutrition and medical care. So at first glance the steep rise in the population looks very frightening as to where is it heading towards and how will such a huge population co-exist in India with limited food supplies, housing etc.
Well here is another statistic for you. The population growth rate in India decreased from the highs of 24.8% in decade of 1961-1971 to 17.7% in the decade of 2001-2011, with a major push coming in the last decade.
So how did it happen and can it help stabilise the population in India. Well, the answer lies in one factor which is probably not much talked about but has several answers hidden in it - Total fertility Rate. The total fertility rate (TFR) of a population is the average number of children that would be born to a woman over her lifetime.
Lets examine the TFR of India, its various states and see how it associates with the other factors in the population.
The last surveyed TFR of India is from the SRS (Sample Registration System) report 2013 of the Census of India and stands at 2.3. But lets see the journey to this number. Below is the graph on the TFR of India, US and China from the Work Bank report.
We see 3 stark contrasts here:
- United States has been a developed state for last several decades and has maintained a TFR of around 2.
- China adopted some stringent Government policies like the 'One Child Policy' to drastically reduce the TFR in 80s and 90s of last century.
- India on the other hand went about a gradual decrease in the TFR.
Now with a gradual decrease in TFR, while it will keep on increasing the population for some time to come, it also results in larger young workforce at all times compared to TFRs with drastic reductions causing majority among old age population.
If the large workforce can be used as an engine for growth, the country is going to prosper much sooner and reach the elite club of developed economies.
Another factor to consider is the Replacement TFR. Replacement fertility is the total fertility rate at which women give birth to enough children to sustain population levels. Based on the demographic surveys and population projections, the replacement TFR for any country has been calculated to be 2.1. If a country maintains a replacement TFR for couple of decades, it can sustain the population levels and then focus well on the upliftment of the living standards of that population.
India may reach the replacement TFR by 2020 or ever before that, and as per the projections from BBC, India may peak to a population of just above 1.6 billion around 2060 before stabilising around that mark. So the population of India may not rise forever :)
The question is that how soon can India reach the Replacement TFR for a population stabilisation?
To answer that, we need to look at the district and statewide performance of TFR in India. Below map provides the fertility rates in India based on the Census survey 2011.
So what do we see here. While most of the southern India, western India and the far northern states had reached a replacement TFR or were close to it, there was a major gap to cover for the remaining northern states, central states and several north-eastern states.
So did the governments do anything in the past 5 years. Well, to check that we need to await the final results of the latest survey in progress - the NFHS-4 (National Family Health Survey). The current survey may be more reliable compared to previous surveys as the sample size is 5 fold and it covers all the 29 states and the 6 union territories.
The NFHS-4 Survey has released the results of 15 out of the 29 states and 2 out of 7 UT in its Phase 1 factsheet. Details can be checked at the NFHS site:
Based on the available results, we see that only 4 states out of the 17 States/UT are still above the Replacement TFR of 2.1. The standout performer is Madhya Pradesh with a reduction in TFR by a factor of 0.9 in the 5 years from 2010 to 2015.
The SRS 2013 results had an All India TFR of 2.3 so with some better results from the remaining states and UT in NFHS-4 Phase-2, can India reach the much awaited replacement TFR of 2.1 much sooner than 2020? This, the next report will tell and I am also eagerly awaiting that. Will update the Part-II of this blog once the NFHS-Phase 2 report is out. Till then, please help the govt. and the agencies in the TFR surveys :)
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