Is India Overpopulated? Part I: TFR Surveys

Since my childhood, I have continuously witnessed one common rhetoric on India, that it has very huge population which is simply increasing each year and with it there will be more competition, less land available for everyone and in turn poverty and chaos everywhere.

Now that I revisit what has been happening in India, I realise that while things could have been better but they are not all that bad either. 

Lets talk about the rise in population in India first based on the census survey each decade (the last one taken in 2011).

It can be seen that post independence of India in 1947, the rise in population has been just alarming. And since then a good thing (but not so good for the rising population) is that the infant mortality rate for India has also decreased from hundreds down to around 40 mainly due to rising incomes, improved nutrition and medical care. So at first glance the steep rise in the population looks very frightening as to where is it heading towards and how will such a huge population co-exist in India with limited food supplies, housing etc.

Well here is another statistic for you. The population growth rate in India decreased from the highs of 24.8% in decade of 1961-1971 to 17.7% in the decade of 2001-2011, with a major push coming in the last decade. 

So how did it happen and can it help stabilise the population in India. Well, the answer lies in one factor which is probably not much talked about but has several answers hidden in it - Total fertility Rate. The total fertility rate (TFR) of a population is the average number of children that would be born to a woman over her lifetime.

Lets examine the TFR of India, its various states and see how it associates with the other factors in the population.

The last surveyed TFR of India is from the SRS (Sample Registration System) report 2013 of the Census of India and stands at 2.3. But lets see the journey to this number. Below is the graph on the TFR of India, US and China from the Work Bank report.

We see 3 stark contrasts here:

• United States has been a developed state for last several decades and has maintained a TFR of around 2. 
• China adopted some stringent Government policies like the 'One Child Policy' to drastically reduce the TFR in 80s and 90s of last century.
• India on the other hand went about a gradual decrease in the TFR.

Now with a gradual decrease in TFR, while it will keep on increasing the population for some time to come, it also results in larger young workforce at all times compared to TFRs with drastic reductions causing majority among old age population. 

If the large workforce can be used as an engine for growth, the country is going to prosper much sooner and reach the elite club of developed economies.

Another factor to consider is the Replacement TFR. Replacement fertility is the total fertility rate at which women give birth to enough children to sustain population levels. Based on the demographic surveys and population projections, the replacement TFR for any country has been calculated to be 2.1. If a country maintains a replacement TFR for couple of decades, it can sustain the population levels and then focus well on the upliftment of the living standards of that population.

India may reach the replacement TFR by 2020 or ever before that, and as per the projections from BBC, India may peak to a population of just above 1.6 billion around 2060 before stabilising around that mark. So the population of India may not rise forever :)

The question is that how soon can India reach the Replacement TFR for a population stabilisation?

To answer that, we need to look at the district and statewide performance of TFR in India. Below map provides the fertility rates in India based on the Census survey 2011.

So what do we see here. While most of the southern India, western India and the far northern states had reached a replacement TFR or were close to it, there was a major gap to cover for the remaining northern states, central states and several north-eastern states.

So did the governments do anything in the past 5 years. Well, to check that we need to await the final results of the latest survey in progress - the NFHS-4 (National Family Health Survey). The current survey may be more reliable compared to previous surveys as the sample size is 5 fold and it covers all the 29 states and the 6 union territories.

The NFHS-4 Survey has released the results of 15 out of the 29 states and 2 out of 7 UT in its Phase 1 factsheet. Details can be checked at the NFHS site:

http://rchiips.org/nfhs/factsheet_NFHS-4.shtml

Based on the available results, we see that only 4 states out of the 17 States/UT are still above the Replacement TFR of 2.1. The standout performer is Madhya Pradesh with a reduction in TFR by a factor of 0.9 in the 5 years from 2010 to 2015. 

The SRS 2013 results had an All India TFR of 2.3 so with some better results from the remaining states and UT in NFHS-4 Phase-2, can India reach the much awaited replacement TFR of 2.1 much sooner than 2020? This, the next report will tell and I am also eagerly awaiting that. Will update the Part-II of this blog once the NFHS-Phase 2 report is out. Till then, please help the govt. and the agencies in the TFR surveys :)

2017: A New Era of Electric Cars begins?

I got interested in the Electric Cars concepts, admiring one of the India cars, Reva Electric as it hit the newspapers few decades ago. I always used to wonder why one has to go through such a cumbersome process of burning fossil fuels to run a car engine motor and why can't we all just simply adopt the strategy of Reva Electric cars. The only reason I could make out that time was that Electric cars are expensive and undergo significant maintenance. So instead of investing in new technologies for high-performance fuel cars shouldn't someone invest on helping the ones like Reva. Slowly my questions took some backstage, as alongwith most people, I too got busy with my career. 

Little did I know that there was a Strategic plan unearthing somewhere in California that could possibly change the history and that's what we are going to talk today :)

For some unfamiliar audience, an electric car is an automobile that is propelled by one or more electric motors, using electrical energy stored in rechargeable batteries or another energy storage device. Electric motors give electric cars instant torque, creating strong and smooth acceleration. They are also around three times as efficient as cars with an internal combustion engine.

So here we start our discussion with Tesla Motors, whose journey began with Elon Musk joining as the Chairman of the company in 2004. Tesla's strategy has been to emulate typical technological-product life cycles and initially enter the automotive market with an expensive, high-end product targeted at affluent buyers. 

Tesla Roadster Sport 2.5

As the company, its products, and consumer acceptance matured, it is moving into larger, more competitive markets at lower price points.Tesla has a three step strategy, where the battery and electric drivetrain technology for each new type would be developed and paid for through sales of the former types, starting with Tesla Roadster and moving on to the Tesla Model S, Model X and Model 3 vehicles.


Till the advent of Tesla, most of the Electric cars coming to market looked more like a gizmo or Techno variant but Tesla had plans to bring it to the mainstream commercial market with all or in-fact much better features than a high class fuel based commercial vehicle. 

Nissan Leaf 2013

Well, to be true, Tesla was not the only one thinking in this manner. We had Nissan with all the previous experience of commercial fuel based cars working with several prototypes and then entering the market with its flagship product - Nissan Leaf. In-fact Nissan Leaf is the world's top selling highway-capable electric car currently. It was released in December 2010 and sold in 46 countries. Global Leaf sales passed the 200,000 unit milestone in December 2015, and the Tesla Model S, released in June 2012, ranks second with over 107,000 units sold worldwide.

With the success stories of Tesla and Nissan, several other companies have taken course and have started the EV race globally.

The details can also be found in the wikipedia link as below:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electric_car

So what's next and why do we say that a New Era of Electric Cars begins in 2017. 
Well there are 2 main reasons for it:

• The advanced economies have already tasted the benefits for the EVs in terms of carbon emissions reduction, non-reliance on the fluctuating fuel prices, lower maintenance needs and last but not the least an excellent opportunity to market a so called revolutionary technology to market (and people obviously like technology revolutions :)

Chevrolet Bolt 2017

• The second reason is the economies of scale. The argument that the Electric vehicles are supposed to be expensive mainly because of the higher battery prices seems to die down. Mass commercial production of batteries is on the cards and with new technology usage, the cars are getting more and more performant.

On the performance and commercially viable part, the most anticipated cars with over 200 miles in a single charge are Tesla 3 (2018 model), Chevrolet Bolt (2017 model) and Nissan Leaf (2018 model) all priced around $35,000 with some govt. incentives as well.

While the launch of the first 2 has been announced, Nissan Leaf next-generation may be announced soon. Some hints for the same have already been made.

http://gas2.org/2015/11/03/2018-nissan-leaf-will-have-200-mile-range/

With these coming launches, its going to be a very interesting competition in the EV space and that's really good for the common buyer. There may still be questions that how will we get more charging stations or that the price of $35,000 is still too high for many buyers. 

Well for that, I can put up an analogy that when credit cards were introduced, people said how will we get space for so many ATM machines and another analogy that when IPhone was introduced, smartphones looked so very expensive for a common man. But we know where we are today. 

So, for this very reason, I believe that while the EV industry may have been a decade old by now, come 2017 and the new Era of Electric cars begins :) so stay tuned...

Renewable Energy 2016: What just happended in the last decade?: Part I: China

I did a minor project long time back in my schools (around year 2000) on Renewable Energy. I went about collecting pictures of the various dams in India and went to the NTPC(National Thermal Power Corporation) to get details on Solar, Biogas, Tidal and other Geothermal energies (Little did I and probably the world know at that time about the potential of the Wind energy :)). So my overall understanding was that yes we have this renewable energy component which is quite exciting and mainly comprises of Hydro-power energy and the others (like Solar, Biogas, Wind),while they are still there, are either very expensive or can only be used at a very small scale and probably are good for Geography and Science lessons to the students.

I got disconnected from this topic for some one and half decade and then come 2015 and as I read some related articles and explore more and more.. its just WoW.. where we are in Renewable Energy sector and whats the potential for the future :)

As of end of 2014, the estimated Renewable Energy Share of Global Electricity Production is 22.8%.

The below table gives an overview on how the renewable energy capacity got increased in the last decade.
The renewable power capacity, including hydro stood at 1,712 GW and not including hydro stood at 657 GW at end of 2014.
These detail are from the REN21 Global Status Report 2015 which showcases the Renewable Energy data till end of 2014 and also provides projections for the future.
http://www.ren21.net/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/REN12-GSR2015_Onlinebook_low1.pdf

So the clear analysis based on the above figures is that the Solar and Wind Energy is leading the show in a big way in the last decade with Solar Energy capacity moving from just 2.6 GW in 2004 to 177 GW in 2014 and Wind Power capacity moving from 48 GW in 2004 to 370 GW in 2014.

Data from some other sources like GWEC site for Wind energy and IRENA site for RE provide an insight that the end of 2015 data report should have the renewable energy, not including hydro somewhere around 800 GW from last year's 657 GW (with 63 GW of added Wind energy and 48 GW of Solar PV Energy as the major sources). 

With such 21% Energy capacity increase in just one year, I would be eagerly awaiting this 2016 report from REN21 to get the better picture.

http://www.gwec.net/

http://www.irena.org/DocumentDownloads/Publications/IRENA_RE_Capacity_Statistics_2016.pdf

Also we see from the report that the Solar heating and fuel for transport have their own piece of success stories but lets focus on the big 2 sources in this article going forward: Solar and Wind Energy, and where exactly is this increase in energy capacity coming from.

Wind Energy

So the Story of Wind Energy capacity in the world is that from just 17 GW in 2000, it has reached a whooping 432 GW in 2015.

Of this, China has the maximum share of around 33% which constitutes around 145 GW of current Wind Energy. In 2015 alone, China added 30.5 GW of Wind energy and the country is forecast to have 250 GW of wind capacity by 2020. China has identified wind power as a key growth component of the country's economy; researchers from Harvard and Tsinghua University have found that China could meet all of their electricity demands from wind power through 2030. However, in practice, the use of wind energy in China has not always kept up with the remarkable construction of wind power capacity in the country as US could generate higher energy in TWh for the same installed capacity. So with improving Transmission lines and better connectivity to the grid China can probably also cater to the energy losses. 

Another interesting development is the Offshore Wind power generation. Stronger wind speeds are available offshore compared to on land, so offshore wind power’s contribution in terms of electricity supplied is higher and such installations are on the rise.

Some of the challenges though for Wind Energy are the Wildlife impacts (the turbine blades pose a threat to birds and bats), Noise Impacts, Cost and Identifying suitable sites. Some technological developments and awareness has been created on these fronts. One of the articles below can provide some details on these challenges.

http://energy.gov/eere/wind/advantages-and-challenges-wind-energy

Solar Energy

The story for Solar Energy is another interesting one. With just 2.6 GW PV capacity in 2004, the PV energy capacity by end of 2014 reached 177 GW and and may well reach 230 GW in the 2015 year end report.

One of the biggest factor in this transformation is the reduced prices of the silicon PV cells due to technological innovations and also due to mass production. The cost of the silicon PV cell in US$ per watt is down to just $0.30 as of 2015 and this makes the Solar PV industry a competitive proposition to the conventional fossil fuel based energy industry. The major stride forward in the Solar energy sector again has been taken by China with 43 GW capacity by the end of 2015. The other major leaders in this sector are Germany, Japan, US, India and other major European countries. 

The Solar Power plants use one of the two technologies:

• Photovoltaic (PV) systems use solar panels, either on rooftops or in ground-mounted solar farms, converting sunlight directly into electric power.
• Concentrated solar power (CSP, also known as "concentrated solar thermal") plants use solar thermal energy to make steam, that is thereafter converted into electricity by a turbine.

The CSP plants comprise of a very small share of the Global Solar Energy with 4.4 GW at the end of 2014. It is lead mainly by US and Spain. 

Another variant of Solar Energy is the Solar Thermal Heating and Cooling systems. Solar thermal technologies contribute significantly to hot water production in many countries, and increasingly to space heating and cooling as well as industrial processes. By end of 2014, the total Solar Water Heating collectors global capacity stood at 406 Gigawatts

China was again the primary driver of demand for new solar thermal capacity in 2014. However, following several years of rapid growth, China’s market was down nearly 18% relative to 2013.

So here I conclude the Part I of this discussion where China has just leapfrogged all other countries in its mission for Renewable energy in the last decade mainly due to its large scale, mass production and dedicated government plans. There are several other success stories like Norway, Germany  and the mission for RE100 and we will talk about them in some detail in Part II of this series. So stay tuned..

India to be the 3rd largest economy by 2024?

Few of us may be knowing that India is currently the 7th Largest Economy of the World (in current Prices) as per the data revealed by the IMF in 2015 Annual report. 

GDP (Nominal) Rankings

For people new to this topic, GDP(Gross Domestic Product) is the value of all final goods and services produced within a state in a given year. Countries are sorted by Nominal GDP estimates from financial and statistical institutions, which are calculated at market or government official exchange rates. Nominal GDP does not take into account differences in the cost living in different countries, and the results can vary greatly from one year to another based on fluctuations in the exchange rates of the country's currency.

The 2014 Official GDP Nominal figures by IMF for India stood at 2,051 Billion US Dollars, which placed it at the 9th Position just behind Brazil and Italy, but the strong position of India with an average GDP growth rate of 7.5% among a global economic crisis has helped India gain two spots up to no. 7th spot with a GDP at 2,182 Billion USD in 2015. 

So what's next in store for India?

India to be the 6th Largest Economy by End of 2016

If we see the IMF projections and also the CNN World economy projections, India is well on course to displace France by end of 2016 to reach the No. 6 position.

https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2015/01/weodata/index.aspx

http://money.cnn.com/news/economy/world_economies_gdp/

India to be the 3rd Largest Economy by End of 2024

With US and China a distance apart, India will definitely be playing the catching up game with other countries to reach the 3rd spot soon. If the estimates from the World Economic League Table are to be believed, India would surpass UK to reach the 5th Spot by end of 2018 with a GDP of 3,096 Billion USD, and surpass Germany and Japan to reach the 3rd spot by end of 2024 with a GDP of around 5,500 Billion USD.

http://www.cebr.com/reports/world-economic-league-table-2015/

So Unless any unwanted situation arises for India like wars, severe domestic disturbances, global recessions or climatic disasters, the economic story for India is going to be very exciting.

The political scene in India also seems to be apt for this economic turnaround with a stable government at the centre currently. If another stable government comes to power in the 2019 Indian general elections, it just about gives the best next 8 years for India to reach the privileged No. 3 Largest Economy spot.

GDP PPP (Purchasing Power Parity) Rankings

GDP Comparisons using PPP are arguably more useful when assessing a nation's domestic market because PPP takes into account the relative cost of local goods, services and inflation rates of the country, rather than using international market exchange rates which may distort the real differences in per capita income.

India already the 3rd Largest Economy-PPP since 2011

In the beginning of this article,we have only spoken about the GDP nominal at the current prices. But for GDP-PPP, India already surpassed Japan to emerge as the third-largest economy, with gross domestic product (GDP) of 5,700 billion USD in 2011, accounting for 6.4 percent of world GDP.

Currently India stands at 8,027 Billion USD, behind 19,510 Billion USD for China and 17,970 Billion USD for US and is well above the 4th Largest economy Japan at 4,658 Billion USD. 

The details for the GDP-PPP comparison by Countries can be found in the Wikipedia link as below:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(PPP)

GDP Per Capita (Nominal) Rankings

Well, India as the 3rd largest GDP-PPP currently and 3rd largest GDP-Nominal by 2024 may be exciting for the country in general, However on the basis of per capita income, india is much lower in the rankings.

GDP Per Capita - Nominal is the value of all final goods and services produced within a nation in a given year, converted at market exchange rates to current U.S. dollars, divided by the average (or mid-year) population for the same year.

India stands at a poor 139th rank  with 1,688 USD in the IMF List of Countries by GDP-Nominal Per Capita 2015. We can see the comparative list in the wikipedia link as below:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(nominal)_per_capita

In 2014 let say the GDP-nominal was 2,051 billion USD and the population of India 1.25 billion, so GDP per capita is around 1,640 USD. And well its a simple maths to figure out that with increasing GDP (nominal), the GDP per capita and in turn the money available for the livings of each person in India is going to raise. 

Lets say by 2024, the GDP of India stand at 5,500 billion USD and the population of India at 1.34 billion, the GDP per capita would be almost 2.5 times of current amount to 4,104 USD. So obviously India has more money to raise the standards of living for its citizens and also the GDP per capita ranking for India may gain some 30-40 ranks up and closer to the 100th spot.

So, I am sure the target of the No. 3 largest economy spot can surely bring smiles to most of us in India but going back to the title of this article, Will India be the 3rd largest economy in next 8 years (by 2024). Well it definitely can. All we need is to make sure we do our work and take care of our family diligently and just don't waste our energy in unnecessary things. :)